This map depicts the percent of Legal Permanent Residents (LPRs), who arrived from 1985-2005, that are eligible to naturalize as a share of the total voting eligible population by county in California. Overlaid in black are the California State Assembly political district boundaries that we are loosely defining as "swing districts". We define swing districts as majority Republican but with the most potential to change to majority Democrat based on political party voter registration – with difference noted within the parentheses (Democrat - Republican).
The key point is that LPRs eligible to naturalize may have significant impacts on the composition of the voting electorate. Eligible LPRs have potential to shift voting patterns and may alter contested legislative districts in California that may tip majority-democrat. The influence is geographic in nature. The highest shares of eligible LPRs are in the San Francisco region, the Central Valley, and Los Angeles region. The suburban political districts of these three major regions have the most potential to change from Republican to Democrat. Given the uneven patterns of demography and political representation, this map shows that underrepresented communities of color are gaining political power that will encourage participation in institutions, facilitate investments in second generation, and build a more integrated and inclusive California.

Data Sources: United States Office of Immigration Statistics; Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 2009 American Community Survey; Redistricting Partners; and California Citizens Redistricting Commission.

Mapmaker: Jared P. Sanchez

Date Created: October 10, 2011